Embrace Chaos To Conquer An Uncertain World

It is important to work to understand as many of the working pieces in your craft but true genesis lies beyond words and true creativity is creating something where there is not. Nobody can tell you where your own success lies and you won't find success in the place it is not. There's a Japanese proverb that says "The Reverse Side Also Has A Reverse Side." These words mixed with Buddha's last - "Conditioned things are perishable; with vigilance strive to succeed" have inspired the notion behind this post as I relate them to myself, creativity and the things I pragmatically work thru on a daily basis. So let's step back and dispel some conventional thinking first.
Four hundred years ago, Francis Bacon warned that our minds are wired to deceive us. "Beware the fallacies into which undisciplined thinkers most easily fall--they are the real distorting prisms of human nature." Chief among them: "Assuming more order than exists in chaotic nature." What he was getting at is that we place too much weight on the odds that past events will repeat themselves. So if that sounds interesting, then let's explore that for a moment, shall we?
Predictive Models Are Overrated
Have you ever taken some time to consider that in marketing, advertising and business in general (or government for that matter), there is an enormous amount of time, money and resource spent on prediction. There is a power law distribution for every PowerPoint and every occasion. As humans, our brains are wired for linear instead of exponential outcomes or statistical uncertainties. We end up looking for simple stories to tell ourselves that explain the complex things we don't--and, most importantly, can't know.
Accept That Order Is A Short-Lived Illusion
The flap of a butterfly’s wings in Brazil can set off a tornado in Texas. You've probably heard of "The Butterfly Effect." The whole notion is that we live in a "dynamical system" where small variations of "initial conditions" can create huge variance in the long-term behavior of that system. In fewer words, there is no way of knowing the affect of a single action due to the infinite variations and unintended consequences of the re-action in an environment where change is constant.
Personally, I believe that we are all part of a system where if we were in a position to know the state and flux of all variables including the infinite number of changing variables that occur every split second and how those variables affect the corresponding infinite variables that there is a predictive model that has no differential equations and works to a reliable certainty. Unfortunately for all of us this falls in the category of "Divine Providence."
So how do we create order in a such a complex world? Forget about it. I'm up for a different approach, how about you? To me, the tension is prediction vs preparedness where success lies in preparing for and embracing uncertainty.
You Must Have Chaos Within You To Give Birth To A Dancing Star
That was written by Friedrich Wilhelm Nietzsche. Nietzsche loved to dance. He believed that dance was the most genuine expression of the soul; our souls being as complex of an environment as the universe itself. What I take this to mean is that success, creativity and happiness itself is more about embracing the unknown than making calculated and deliberate actions toward a preconceived outcome. I think this is his way of defining "the passion quotient" that virtually every writer of success points to as it's basis. Find what makes you happy and you will find where your creativity and pathway to success is. Embrace your "self" and have faith in the uncertain. It kinda goes hand-n-hand. Passion and faith in your passion is the foundational piece to overcoming any obstacle life throws at you. So now that we've "Embraced Chaos" and found our passion, how do we pragmatically conquer our uncertain world.
Passion Breeds Preparedness
So maybe you have found your passion. Maybe you, like me, were told as a child "you can be anything you want to be (or do anything you want to do) when you grow up." A more correct answer is "you can do anything you are PREPARED to do." It was Thomas Edison who said "Genius was 1 percent inspiration and 99 percent perspiration." Passion goes a LONG way. However, in Edison's case, it was only 1 percent of the equation. Now I don't necessarily agree with his equation but his point is valid. My equation, especially in today's ever-changing and complex world, is a little different.
Preparedness Breeds Awareness And Opportunity
I have talked with many extraordinary and successful people. When asked, pretty much every one of them told me that the events that made the most profound difference in their success were not created by their will to succeed but by being in the right place, at the right time, with the right tools and the right domain expertise -- domain expertise developed thru passion, awareness and preparation. In other words, any amount of pontificating or previous research could not have created or foretold of the opportunities that actually made a difference in almost all the cases I've come across. Success is about stumbling on the right opportunity at the right time with the right skillset and the right perspective to notice it.
Being prepared in a chaotic world to deal with complexity to create and facilitate value is the key. So luck DOES have a LOT to do with it. But you don't get lucky sitting on the couch - no matter how much talent you have; which brings us to the next rivalry....
You Can't Rely On Talent
I just got thru reading Malcom Gladwell's latest book Outliers: The Story of Success. One chapter is devoted to time. Time & practice being the great equalizer. Time spent practicing or in "preparation." It's about the notion that; no matter how talented you are on day one, after 10,000 hours of practice, the talent you had or did not have on day one becomes virtually irrelevant. Take Tiger Woods. He had an obvious talent for golf at an extraordinarily young age. Where do you think we would be if Tiger wasn't just as legendary in his work ethic and didn't put in years and years and years of practice? We would have never heard of Tiger Woods. So what is it that can take a talented child and drive them to become the best of the best? It still comes down to preparation. There are golfers out there, who never had the God given talent Tiger had that are competitive and in many times, surpasses him in the sport. Preparation overcomes all.
Don't I Blog About Digital Media, Interactive Marketing & Flat World Implications?
I wrote this post because I have been working on building an extraordinary team. There has been a lot of discussion on what type of people to look for when it comes to building products in the digital space. I want to work with people who are creative and do not need to be managed. People who, as a group, can be pointed in a direction and succeed; more times than not. In today's flat world, any less won't cut it. So yeah.. I do blog about digital media, interactive marketing & flat world implications


August 3rd, 2009 - 18:12
George, fascinating and inspiring post. You're right. Ultimately, our work at prediction models and the like are left up to luck/divine providence. We simply try to project out. Jesus said not to say that we will go here or there without saying "if God wills it." One of my favorite phrases in life is "there but for the grace of God go I."
But like your post says, our responsibility is to be prepared. Someone once said that "luck is when preparation meets opportunity." And my favorite quote from Lord of the Rings, when Frodo says "I wish none of this had happened," Gandolf replies, "So do all who live to see such times, but that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us."
August 12th, 2009 - 00:51
Excelent, gorgeous photograph to represent chaos…
Imagine it becoming solid and you may start thinking about thinkers, how did they show up on Earth before us in order to leave to us their thinkings.
Excelent subject and commentaires of yours, but you still left on the air the same old questions, despite of quoting those talented from the past.
We do not know what a been is.
We do not know about our origens, nor our purpose on life and not even considered the possiblity for us to find out a way of staying longer, or etternally, when we find the cure for the disease that end killing ourselves, called "oldness"…
We need to know how to prevail on life.
We need to know how to believe, all of us human beens, in the same God, Nature or even origens, before we start learning about fatality of dying.
I wasn't born to die. I assure you that.
December 13th, 2009 - 23:10
Very interesting that just the other day I made an entry about moving in the very direction of this blog. I’ve only come across your blog today by chance (synchroncity – who knows?). Great posts by the way and very refreshing.
I’ve thought often about how shifts in traditional business models / advertising etc. it’s most apparent in digital trends, social media and the like. It’s also part of my job to look at what makes something go viral and this relates to what you talk about above. It’s about being there at the right place / at the right time and it can’t be subject to same predictive patterns, techniques, statistics etc. because it has to hit a social nerve that’s relevant for a very short time only.
What this means is we often need to just take a punt, take an unprecedented change in direction or you might say a leap of faith into chaos. The rather cliché saying – “if you always do the same things you’ll always get the same results” is apt or as Lao Tzu wrote over 2000 years back: “If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading”
January 4th, 2010 - 10:57
A great post! You say that you’re building an extraordinary team. I truly believe that a single blog post like this will help you build a tribe!
Most of the successes I’ve experienced comes from a trust in the unknown. From being openminded and therefore adjustable to new situations (and people). This is also very much in tune with our work in social media at MINDJUMPERS.
I feel blessed that our first big client chose to believe us when we explained that a 6 month social media campaign can’t be planned 100%. Having this permission to pursue yet unknown opportunities gave me freedom to foster spontaneous ideas a long with the more strategic approaches.
Important to mention that this company normally put much effort into prediction. But they dared to be open to changes and new possibilities along the way. Today they’ve identified even more KPIs as well as unseen opportunities.
The principles you’re talking about applies everywhere, but in social media they become extremely evident. For example one of our campaigns got more than 12.000 fans on Facebook from 25 different countries. Working with TribeSourcing and being in contact with such a diverse tribe certainly illuminated the power of chaos. Having conversations and sharing ideas with a global mix of people I wouldn’t meet in the office really gave unseen gifts to the campaign a long the way (i.e. mexican granddad, a british singlemother, a 19-year old Malaysian student etc.)
Well, one more time thanks for an inspiring post!
June 18th, 2010 - 22:30
thanks for this great post..i also loved Galdwell's book. Tipping point was also great
July 12th, 2010 - 16:59
Funny, I wrote something close to this awhile back! Great minds and all that… http://adholes.com/postings/b1bc7b544350aeb3c6019…
Shortly I will have more thoughts on my blog!
Cheers!
B
July 15th, 2010 - 00:41
That is pretty close. All I can say is good job and great minds think alike
February 20th, 2011 - 00:14
This is fantastic George. A validation and eerily reminiscent of my experiences, some of my favorite things from the past few years. Love the Outliers reference (Gladwell's one of my favorites). I also tend to exploit Nietzsche and Edison philosophies…
'Talent is 1% genius — and 99% perspiration' (You have to want it more than anyone else. It's that simple)
500 Days of Summer: You know, I kinda like what Nietzsche said: There is always some madness in love. But there's also some reason in madness.' But, then again Nietzsche went crazy from syphilis, so — theres' that.
Also reminded me of a movie I recently revisited (book's great, too):
Accident rules every corner of the universe…except maybe the chambers of the human heart – Snow Falling On Cedars
Look forward to sharing on here! Recently joined the blogging community Feb 1st and love what I'm finding/hearing so far…
Cheers
October 11th, 2011 - 22:17
It seems that you've put a great amount of time into your article and I want a lot more of these on the web these days. Well